WASHINGTON — In summary, President Biden’s insistence on running for a second term, rather than handing over his seat to the next generation, is the Democratic Party most confident that he will beat former President Donald J. Trump next year. It means being a member.
but Impressive new poll Over the past few days, much of the capital has contested the incident in a bustling way. At face value, polls showed Biden trailing Trump by six points in a theoretical rematch.
Especially early in the election cycle, no single poll counts as much, and presidential strategists and some independent analysts have questioned the methods. But even if it were an outlier, other recent polls show that either Biden or Trump maintain a slight lead within margin of error, effectively a tie. I’m here. Taken together, they suggest that the president will begin the 2024 election campaign facing a gigantic challenge with no guarantee of victory for Mr. Trump.
The data has left many Democrats unnerved by nausea. Biden if a president who has passed major legislation and maintained the lowest unemployment rate in generations can’t outperform his two-time impeachment challenger who has been indicted for inciting an insurgency It undermines their view that is a safe hand in volatile times. He faces multiple felony charges and a civil trial accused of rape, and is likely to face more criminal charges in the coming months.
Donna Brasil, a sleep-deprived former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said, “Polls will not only convince the American public that the president is ready for the job he wants, but the president is not ready yet.” It shows that there is work to be done,” he said. On the “sinister signs” of the latest findings. “More importantly, it is a good forecast of the challenges he will face in rebuilding the remarkable coalition that elected him in 2020.”
“I don’t think they should panic because one poll can’t panic,” said Brazil, who ran Al Gore’s presidential campaign in 2000. voting booth. “But it’s an important barometer of where voters stand today, about 547 days away from the November 2024 election.”
of Survey by Washington Post and ABC News The president’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, and if an election were held today, Trump would trail the president by 38% from 44%. , concluded that Trump, 76, believes he is physically and mentally healthier than Biden, 80, and that the former president manages the economy better than the incumbent.
Critics of the poll criticized not only registered voters, but the inclusion of all adults in the 1,006 sample, leaving subgroups such as youth, independents, Hispanics, and black Americans with utterly disappointing results. He claimed that he could not be trusted.
Cornell Belcher, a former pollster for President Barack Obama, said, “Polls are really crap. I’ve respected their polls in the past, so I don’t say that lightly.” But their methodological decisions here are problematic,” he added of how the survey was produced.
Others warn against over-analyzing the data at this early date, pointing out that anything could happen within the next 18 months, making predictions based on polls (or misinterpreting polls). recalled that it proved to be a poor predictor in recent cycles, including the 2022 midterm elections, and included when forecasts were “red.” Wave” did not materialize.
“The value of the May 2024 poll is going to be questionable,” said David Proof, Obama’s campaign manager. “The May 2023 poll is worth as much as Theranos stock.”
The White House has not expressed any concerns about the latest investigation. White House press secretary Andrew Bates said, “President Biden’s average approval ratings are lower than they were in early November, when poll-based reports widely predicted that the seemingly inevitable red wave hadn’t arrived. It’s getting higher,” he said.
Kevin Munoz, spokesman for the fledgling Biden campaign, said the president would win on issues such as lowering prescription drugs and protecting Social Security. “Americans voted for Joe Biden’s America in 2020 and 2022. No matter what Beltway insiders say today, they will vote again in 2024,” he said. .
While not a prediction, recent research provides a basic baseline of what is likely between two commonly known numbers at the start of the race, with no clear frontrunner. I foresee the campaign.voter yahoo news, wall street journal and Morning consultation The Economist and Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University I found him tied or trailing by a few points. Biden faces an equally mixed outcome against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump’s strongest challenger in the race for the Republican nomination.
This result shows the calcification of American politics that leaders of both parties have similarly sized cores of support among voters who are not open to opposite sides, regardless of how the news unfolds. The days when a president could maintain over 50% approval ratings or a double-digit lead over a challenger seem long gone. So, without broad support, the challenge for Biden is to rebuild the coalition that delivered a 4.5-point victory nearly three years ago.
Biden denied the importance of polls and said he was no different from any other president at this point. “The vote counts of all the key congressmen who won reelection were the same as my current numbers,” he told his Stephanie Ruhle on his MSNBC’s “The 11th Hour” on Friday.
But in reality, only two of the past 13 presidents had lower approval ratings than Mr. Biden at this point. Aggregate compilation by FiveThirtyEight.com — Mr. Trump and Mr. Jimmy Carter, who lost their re-election. A more encouraging example for Mr. Biden is the case of Ronald Reagan. Mr. Reagan was re-elected in a landslide reelection in 1984, just a tenth of his way behind the current president.
Republican consultant Whit Ayers said it shows Biden is essentially tied to or behind a “former president who carries more luggage than a 747 with a 747 on board.” warned Democrats not to become complacent.
“If you think Biden won’t lose to Trump in 2024, Democrats are in denial,” he said. “Trump can definitely win. Joe Biden is calling on the country to elect a candidate who will be 82 years old, but he’s clearly lost a step and everyone in both parties has prime time.” I’m running with a vice president who I hardly think is ready to run for president.
Post-ABC polls and other polls contain grim news, even for Republicans. While there may be a cap that cannot be crossed, Mr. Biden may be able to persuade vague independents who hate the former president, he said.
“Polls aren’t good news for Biden, but they’re also not good news for Republicans,” said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. is only about one-third.
She said Democrats and independents would be forced to clash when it came to choosing between Biden and Trump. “I’ve noticed a softer tone among Democrats, but I doubt that whatever skepticism Democrats have with pollsters right now, they’re going to vote for Joe Biden. There is no room for
Stuart Stevens, who led Mitt Romney’s campaign against Obama in 2012 and is a vocal critic of Trump, said the Republican establishment has former President Barack Obama leading in several polls. Nonetheless, he noted that he was worried that he might not win. “We seem to be in this weird moment when the Republican elite are panicking that Trump can’t beat Biden,” he said. I think it’s because I know it’s flawed.”
Former Obama senior adviser David Axelrod, who opposed Stevens, agreed with his assessment. “What Biden has that no one else has is the record of beating Trump, and that has greatly influenced the conversation about the race among Democrats,” Axelrod said. Told. “He also has a run-worthy record, is off the mainstream on some key issues, and is a seriously flawed frontrunner.”
Axelrod added: “Democrats’ concern is that re-election will depend on many factors that Biden cannot fully control, including his own health and aging process.” “Any setback would exacerbate public concerns about his condition and his ability to handle the next four years, which are already evident in polls.”
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