The European Central Bank has ramped up its efforts to obtain data that typically provide long lags and little detail, as profits become essential in determining the inflation outlook. As part of the policy-making process, the central bank this year began tracking quarterly calls when business executives discuss financial results with analysts, Mr. Lane said.
Eurozone headline inflation is down significantly from last year’s peak, Thursday’s data showed. Inflation in Spain fell below 2% in june. However, other measures are Domestic price pressure remains very strong. Eurozone-wide inflation data for June is due to be released on Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline inflation to fall to 5.6% from 6.1% in May, while core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, is expected to fall from 5.3% to 5.5%. expected to rise to
Looking further ahead, the central bank expects headline inflation to be around 3% next year. But Lane said he fears the “last kilometer” to reach the goal risks being more difficult than expected. The Bank for International Settlements also agreeswhich acts as a bank for the central bank.
“We have a target of 2%, but we don’t have a target of 3%,” Lane said. “We still have a lot of work to do to get it up from 3% to 2%.”
past July, When the Central Bank is Expected to Raise RatesGiven all the uncertainty about the inflation path, Mr. Lane said it would be best for policymakers to “not give signals” about what to do next, but that interest rates would remain in place for a “considerable period” of economic growth. expected to limit the
However, several other members of the bank’s board of directors said interest rates will need to rise again in September. And the bank’s governor Christine Lagarde this week hit back at investor expectations that interest rates would be cut next year, saying monetary policy was “restrictive” and that it should remain so “as long as necessary”. rice field.
