Why it matters: Putin needs public support
Early in the war, some U.S. officials predicted that as the war progressed and economic sanctions deepened, public support for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin might wane and pressure to end the conflict could come. Was. But it’s not happening. Support for the war remains strong in Russia. It started declining slightly in early March, but has only recovered nationally. May 9 Victory Day Celebrations, according to FilterLabs analysis.
Still, U.S. officials say it’s hard to get an accurate picture of public opinion in Russia, but they believe support has begun to crack in recent months.
Background: How to measure public opinion
Opinion polls in Russia and other authoritarian countries are imprecise measures of public opinion. This is because respondents often tell pollsters what the government wants to hear. Polls often ask questions indirectly to elicit more honest answers, but it is still difficult to accurately assess questions.
FilterLabs attempts to address this shortcoming by continuously collecting data from small local Internet forums, social media companies, and messaging apps to determine public opinion. FilterLab is also exploring platforms that allow Russians to express their opinions more freely and honestly, said Jonathan Teibner, CEO of FilterLabs.
FilterLabs is collaborated with Ukrainian groups To gauge their ability to influence Russian public opinion. The company’s efforts are most useful for measuring the direction of sentiment rather than snapshots. Like all attempts to measure public opinion, sentiment analysis is imperfect, contains many potential sources of bias, and is only one organization’s analysis.
FilterLabs uses native Russian speakers to detect the usual features of spoken speech and improve the ability of algorithms to identify linguistic nuances such as sarcasm and sarcasm. The company also seeks to identify and independently track known sources of propaganda on such forums.
What’s next: Kremlin propaganda push
Concern about the high casualties early in the war eroded Putin’s support, prompting the Kremlin to push propaganda. But Filterlabs said his loss of support was short-lived, and the public once again rallied in support of the government.
Things look a little different now.
According to Filterlabs, media outlets affiliated with the Kremlin appear to be trying to counter the growing concerns, running more optimistic stories about Russian casualties. But Teubner said the state media outlets appear to have had limited influence on public opinion so far this year.
U.S. officials say Russians appear to be aware of the high casualties, but warn that knowledge so far has not led to less support for the war or Mr Putin. are doing. But one official said recent casualties could be different.
As the war dragged on, setbacks on the battlefield became less shocking to Russians. Therefore, Teubner said it would be difficult for a single event to change overall support for war.
But over time, if casualties continue to be a concern, support for the war is likely to decline. “Despite efforts by Kremlin-linked sources to reverse Russia’s attitude, the reality of casualties remains one of the Kremlin’s greatest vulnerabilities,” Teubner said.
