Donald J. Trump cast this year’s primary as a moment to measure his power and, unlike other former presidents, supported dozens of candidates because he tried to leave a mark on the party.
However, the verdict became clear after the first phase of the primary on Tuesday, the month when a quarter of the US states cast ballots. Mr. Trump’s aura of untouchable in Republican politics has been broken.
For more than five years from his inauguration in January 2017 to May 2022, Mr. Trump has never seen voters reject half a dozen of his choices in the Republican primary. did. But by the end of this month, that number had more than doubled, and his biggest defeat came on Tuesday when Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia beat Trump-backed challengers by more than 50 percent. .. Three other Trump recruits challenging Kemp’s allies were also defeated.
Increasing losses have bolded Mr. Trump’s rivals within the party to the extent that they haven’t been seen since early 2016, increasing the likelihood that he will face serious competition if he runs again in 2024. ..
“I think there is an opportunity for non-Trump with organized campaigns,” said former Georgia MP Jack Kingston, who advised on the first President Trump campaign.
Mr. Trump is widely popular among Republicans and has a treasure trove of political warfare of well over $ 100 million. However, the signs of slipping are less noticeable. Mr. Trump’s proud digital funding machine has begun to slow down. According to an analysis by The New York Times, his average daily online contribution has declined each month over the past seven months when federal data is available.
Mr. Trump raised an average of $ 324,633 a day in September 2021 on WinRed, a Republican donation processing portal, to $ 202,185 in March 2022.
Be careful not to misunderstand the importance of primary losses that he himself was not on the ballot, even for those close to Mr. Trump, and even Republicans who are not. For example, Mr. Kemp struggled not to say a crossword puzzle about the former president in order to avoid alienating his loyal foundation.
“To be a man, you have to beat him,” said Jim Hobert, a Republican pollster in the public opinion strategy. “And his strength remains until Trump bows out of election politics or is beaten by Republicans in a ballot box.”
Rivals, including his own former Vice President Mike Pence, have potential presidential elections as he and others visit major early states like Iowa and step up their own funding efforts. We are preparing for. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has collected $ 100 million in reelection war chests and is the story of many donors, activists and voters interested in the future of trumpism-free trumpism.
“Donald Trump has had a good year for four years,” said Cole Mugio, chairman of the Frontline Policy Council, a conservative Christian group based in Georgia.
“DeSantis is good at seeing where the left is heading and playing on the field they plan to go, rather than reacting to what happened a few years ago,” Mugio said. I said while repeating frustration. He continues to be obsessed with denying his defeat in the 2020 elections.
After the Georgia primary
The May 24th race was one of the most important races to date in the 2022 mid-cycle.
Mugio, an organization hosting former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as headliner for the fall gala, spoke while waiting to hear Pence at Kemp’s rally this week in Kennesaw, Georgia. .. The party’s “deep bench” for the 2024 alternative.
Mr. Trump is still the most coveted supporter of his party, and he has backed up some big winners. Arkansas’s Sarah Huckabee Sanders virtually cleared the governor’s field with his help, and North Carolina’s Congressman Ted Budd defeated the former governor to win his party’s senator nomination.
Still, difficult primaries added to Mr. Trump’s personal anxiety about his position after he tried to shape himself as like the boss of an old school party after his presidency. He told his adviser that he would like to declare his candidacy or set up an investigative commission this summer.
Most of Mr. Trump’s advisers believe that he should wait until after the midterm elections to announce his candidacy. Still, the feeling among Republicans that Mr. Trump has lost his political heights is taking hold, including among those close to him.
Trump spokesman Taylor Glitch said the “undeniable reality” is that Republicans rely on Trump to “boost the Republican victory after 2022.”
“President Trump’s political activities continue to dominate American politics, raising more money and winning more than any other political organization.
Some Republican strategists stick to the fact that so many of Mr. Trump’s supporters have won about one-third of the votes. Big winners (JD Vance, Ohio), losers (Jody Hice, Georgia, Janice McGeetin, Nebraska, Nebraska) and people heading for recount (Dr. Mehmet Oz, Pennsylvania).
One-third of the party is a cohort far from the majority, while being an unparalleled foundation for unyielding supporters.
In particular, Mr. Trump’s share has declined, albeit with an overall increase among all Republicans online. Mr. Trump’s main funding committee accounted for 19.7% of what was raised by the Republican campaign and the WinRed committee in the last four months of 2021, but during the first three months of 2022. Only 14.1% of what was raised. The decline is the result of further increases by other ballot candidates this year.
Still, only 10 times since July 2021, Mr. Trump’s committee accounts for less than 10% of the money raised in WinRed in a single day. And nine of them occurred in March 2022, and last month’s data was available.
Voice opposition is no longer limited to anti-Trump forces within the party, but is also evident in the mainstream of pro-Trump. He was honorable when Mr. Kemp arrived in Nashville Thursday and spoke before a Republican Governor’s rally, which was a victory targeted by Mr. Trump’s refusal to try to overturn the 2020 presidential election. I received a lot of applause.
“This is the moment Trump is slipping!” There is this temptation to engage in wishcasting, “said conservative anti-Trump commentator Charlie Sykes. “On the other hand, what happened in Georgia was important. He drew a bright red line — and voters just stamped across it.”
Understanding the 2022 midterm elections
Why are these midterms so important? This year’s race could pass on the balance of power in Congress to the Republicans and interfere with the agenda for the second half of President Biden’s term. They also test the role of former President Donald J. Trump as Republican champion. Here’s what you need to know:
Sykes said the current Republican Party is still a “trumpist party”, even though it sees a developing distinction between “trumpism and Donald Trump himself.” As he said, the key question is whether Republican voters are in the mood to “give him a gold watch and move on.”
Mr. Pence, who publicly accused Mr. Trump of riots flocking to the Capitol during the certification of the 2020 Electoral College vote, traveled to early states. A favorite of evangelical voters, he supports his support for ending the right to abortion as the Supreme Court prepares for a decision that could revoke the groundbreaking Roe v. Wade decision. I tried to emphasize.
Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton has been an immigrant and Chinese hawk before President Trump, positioning himself as a potential heir to trumpism. Mr. Cotton also contrasts with Mr. Trump from the right, voicingly criticizing the First Steps Act, a criminal justice reform bill signed by the former president, as a liberal law.
Two former Trump administration executives, Mr. Pompeo and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley have expressed their support, traveled and built political infrastructure. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott recently announced another trip to Iowa, where he has invested heavily in his digital funding efforts.
Scott said this would be his last term in the Senate. But despite facing the opposition to tokens, he continues to fill the $ 23.4 million campaign finances. Scott has more than 1,000 times more than his closest rival, the $ 23,199 Democrat.
Even some Trump allies, such as right-wing media host Steven K. Bannon, talk about the former Trump voters when they blame Mr. Trump for the coronavirus vaccine he defended during his presidency.
But when the May primary showed the limits of Mr. Trump’s personal influence, they also revealed that his refusal campaign was pervading the party. In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, the main voice against the recognition of the 2020 election, won the Governor’s primary in a landslide last week.
Many Republican strategists feel that Mr. Trump’s continued obsession with the 2020 elections is that Democrats are in power in Washington, and most of the country is heading in the wrong direction. It claims to be an unwanted pastime in 2022, showing that.
“The strong message from Georgian voters is: Stop talking about 2020,” said Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell. Told Politico.. “And hold an autumn election for the future and the Biden administration.”
In an interview with Republican voters at the Kemp event, few were anti-Trump. “We had a great four years with him. The economy was great, the work was great and everything was great,” said Belindafix, 49, a cafeteria manager in the suburbs of Atlanta.
But Fix, who voted twice for Trump, is looking elsewhere in 2024. She lives in Cobb County, a suburb far from the Republicans during the Trump era. Hillary Clinton carried it in 2016 with less than 8,000 votes. President Biden won with more than 55,000 votes, far exceeding the victory margin in the state.
“He’s very polarized,” Fix said of Mr. Trump, “and that’s the problem.”
Rachel Sholy Report that contributed.
