Washington — Many factors The prospect of dying To revive the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement.But probably nothing is hindering Biden administration’s efforts More than the legacy of President Donald J. Trump.
Of course, it was Mr. Trump. Those who withdrew in 2018 From the nuclear deal mediated by the Obama administration with Iran, he called it the “worst deal in history.”
But Mr. Trump did more than unplug. US officials and analysts say his actions have greatly complicated America’s ability to negotiate with Tehran. It made a request outside the nuclear deal that President Biden refused to meet without concessions.
The original agreement restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions that crushed Iran’s economy. After Mr. Trump stopped trading and imposed sanctions Iran has also begun to violate that condition..
As Iran is making steady progress towards nuclear capabilities without compromising on new agreements, the Biden administration will accept or take military action to prevent Iran from having the ability to drop bombs. You may be forced to decide immediately whether to take. Iran claims that the nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, such as the production of medical isotopes for the diagnosis and treatment of illness.
Mr. Trump handed Mr. Biden an unnecessary nuclear crisis, Robert Malley, the State Department’s chief negotiator. I told the Senator at a hearing At the end of last month, he added that the possibility of bailout of the deal became “diluted.”
Negotiations in Vienna It has been on hold since mid-March to recover the transaction. on mondaySecretary of State Antony J. Blinken said that Iran’s leaders “if they want to proceed with what was negotiated, they must make a decision and make a very quick decision, and Iran chose to do so. If so, it could be completed quickly. “
this month, US and European allies criticized Iran For not cooperating with international inspectors Tehran officials have doubled By deactivating and removing some surveillance cameras in the nuclear facility.
Blinken said Iran’s move was “not encouraged.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdrahian said on Tuesday that Iran had proposed a new plan to the United States, but he did not provide details.
“Iran never escapes from the negotiating table and believes that negotiations and diplomacy are the best way to reach good and lasting deals,” he said in Tehran.
A senior Washington official close to the negotiations was unaware of the new proposal from Tehran, but said that “of course we remain open” to ideas that could lead to an agreement.
According to some people familiar with the negotiation process that Biden started early last year, Trump’s legacy appears in negotiations in at least three notable ways.
First, there was what the Iranians called a huge breach of trust. Despite Iran’s adherence to the terms, Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the unilateral deal confirmed Tehran’s fears of how quickly the United States could change tacks after the election.
At the negotiating table in Vienna, the Iranians demanded a guarantee that Mr Biden’s successor would be restricted from canceling the transaction again.
Signed by 250 of 290 Iranian parliamentarians in late February letter He urged the President of Iran to “learn lessons from past experience” by “not committing to any agreement without first obtaining the necessary guarantees.”
Biden officials explained that it was impossible given the nature of the American democratic system. ((((Nuclear negotiations between world powers and Iran began under President George W. Bush And it was finalized in the 2015 deal with President Obama’s commitment. This agreement was not ratified as a treaty by the US Senate. )
Iranians have relevant concerns: Foreign companies may be reluctant to invest in Iran if they believe that the US sanctions hammer could fall again after the next presidential election.
Mr. Trump has created the second major hurdle to recovering transactions by encouraging Iran with about 1,500 new sanctions designations.Iran argued that these sanctions would be revoked — only Mr. Trump’s 2019 specify Of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group. The previous administration oversaw Iranian troops in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen and accused the Revolutionary Guard of supporting Iraqi militants who killed Americans. However, they were wary of identifying foreign government troops as terrorist groups.
Iran’s negotiators said Mr Biden must remove the Revolutionary Guard’s terrorist label in order to conclude a new nuclear deal.But Biden refused Iran first without giving any other concessions — and Blinken. Described the group as a terrorist organization Most recently in April.
Some analysts call this issue primarily symbolic, but it is strongly. The United States has already severely sanctioned the Revolutionary Guard Corps and group commanders, and the effects of the penalties were expected to have long-term implications for Iran’s economy. Nonetheless, the US Senate has approved a non-binding resolution by a 62-33 vote in May banning Mr Biden from removing the designation. Some key Democrats, including Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, who is the leader of the majority, have endorsed the bill.Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote a message of approval On twitter After Mr. Biden informed him that the designation remained.
Government officials said the United States was prepared to de-designate terrorism only if Iran was ready to provide new guarantees on security concerns related to the Revolutionary Guard Corps. .. Officials who explained the private negotiations on condition of anonymity would be less specific, except that Iran refused to give up for any reason.
Those familiar with the talks point out the third logistic way that Mr. Trump’s legacy is imminent. Iranian officials have refused to speak directly with US officials since Mr. Trump closed his deal. (Mr. Trump further infuriated Iran Order assassination In 2020, Iran’s senior military commander, Qassim Suleimani
During the meeting in Vienna, Marie contacted an Iranian negotiator by sending a message from a hotel across the street through a European intermediary. It stagnated the process and caused occasional time-consuming misunderstandings.
Trump administration officials and their associates have created policies that partially mean making future negotiations difficult without causing dramatic changes in Iran’s behaviour, to a greater or lesser extent. Expected complexity.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that opposes the Iranian government, said: What he explained in 2019 As a “wall” of Trump administration sanctions against Iran, including the terrorist designation of the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“I’m happy that the sanctions barrier is basically maintained, because it should be maintained,” Dubowitz, who strongly opposed the nuclear deal, said on Monday. “Iran should not be subject to sanctions relaxation unless it stops the underlying actions that led to the sanctions in the first place.”
Biden administration officials say that even though Mr. Trump put strong economic pressure on Tehran, Mr. Trump made the most unrealistic demands on Iran.
“Iran has predicted that Iran will not resume its nuclear program and Iran will negotiate on our other concerns,” the Trump administration said in a Senate hearing. “I wish they were right. Unfortunately, they proved to be wrong in all respects.”
After Mr. Trump withdrew from the agreement, Iran began to increase its nuclear program. However, Dubowitz has accelerated uranium enrichment to more dangerous levels. Taken other threatening measures After revealing that Biden is eager to return to the 2015 agreement.
Dennis Ross, a Middle Eastern negotiator who worked for several presidents, said both sides still have incentives to compromise.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Hamenei, needs easing of sanctions for his economy. “At this point, there is no other way to limit Iran’s nuclear program, and we are making progress,” said Mr. Biden, with less oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Ross said parliamentary support was limited even in 2015, as Iran has gained more atomic know-how and the agreement’s key “sunset provisions” have expired in just a few years. He admitted that nuclear trading does not seem very attractive today. But he said Biden may still want to return to trading, “not because he thinks it’s so great, but because the alternatives are so bad.”
“Otherwise, the Iranians can just keep moving forward,” he said.
Farna’s Fashihi Contributed to the report from New York.